Looking back from 2020: Three Trump Presidencies. Brookings Institution. Philip A. Wallach. March 2, 2016.
With Donald Trump’s historic Super Tuesday wins now in the books, it is getting quite difficult to see a path to someone beating him for the Republican nomination—indeed, if he were a normal candidate who performed similarly, we might well see him as the presumptive nominee. So now it is time to start thinking seriously about what a Trump presidency would mean. Anyone who cannot imagine relatively benign outcomes simply lacks imagination. Here are three paradigmatic scenarios viewed from the end of Trump’s first term. The question for voters as they begin to weigh Mr. Trump as a general election candidate is how they view the relative probabilities of each. [Note: contains copyrighted material].
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