What do financial markets think of the 2016 election? Brookings Institution. Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz. October 21, 2016
In “What do financial markets think of the 2016 election,” the University of Michigan’s Justin Wolfers and Dartmouth College’s Eric Zitzewitz conduct an event study analyzing the response of financial and prediction markets to the most consequential single event (so far!) during the 2016 general election campaign: the first Presidential debate, which occurred on September 26, 2016. Polls taken immediately after the debate found that voters thought Clinton had won the debate by a clear margin. The debate created an abrupt shift in the dynamics of the race, increasing the chances of a Clinton presidency, and reducing the chance of a Trump presidency. [Note: contains copyrighted material].
[PDF format, 42 pages, 1.11 MB].