National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t

National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t. RAND Corporation.  Michael J. McNerney et al. September 20, 2018

 What drives some governments to persevere in war at any price while others choose to stop fighting? It is often less-tangible political and economic variables, rather than raw military power, that ultimately determine national will to fight. In this analysis, the authors explore how these variables strengthen or weaken a government’s determination to conduct sustained military operations, even when the expectation of success decreases or the need for significant political, economic, and military sacrifices increases.

This report is part of a broader RAND Arroyo Center effort to help U.S. leaders better understand and influence will to fight at both the national level and the tactical and operational levels. It presents findings and recommendations based on a wide-ranging literature review, a series of interviews, 15 case studies (including deep dives into conflicts involving the Korean Peninsula and Russia), and reviews of relevant modeling and war-gaming.

The authors propose an exploratory model of 15 variables that can be tailored and applied to a wide set of conflict scenarios and drive a much-needed dialogue among analysts conducting threat assessments, contingency plans, war games, and other efforts that require an evaluation of how future conflicts might unfold. The recommendations should provide insights into how leaders can influence will to fight in both allies and adversaries. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 154 pages].

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Shifting Tides: Radical-Right Populism and Immigration Policy in Europe and the United States

Shifting Tides: Radical-Right Populism and Immigration Policy in Europe and the United States. Migration Policy Institute. Martin A. Schain. August 2018.

 Even as populist radical-right parties have experienced mixed electoral success, their ideas have gained traction in Europe and the United States. This report analyzes the economic, political, and social factors behind the rise in support for the radical-right agenda, and the impact of this trend on immigration policymaking and the broader political landscape on both sides of the Atlantic. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 38 pages].

Developing Cybersecurity Capacity: A Proof-of-Concept Implementation Guide

Developing Cybersecurity Capacity: A Proof-of-Concept Implementation Guide. RAND Corporation. Jacopo Bellasioet al. August 2, 2018.

 The role played by information communication technologies (ICTs) and by the networks they generate and underpin has continuously increased throughout recent decades. From an economic perspective, the potential positive impact of the Internet and ICTs on growth and development has now been widely recognised. However, the cloak of immunity and anonymity that these technologies can provide, have led to a growth in illicit activities across cyberspace.

This document is a proof-of-concept operational toolbox designed to facilitate the development of national-level cybersecurity capacity building programmes and of holistic policy and investment strategies to tackle challenges in the cyber domain. The document seeks to enable a better translation of the results of national cyber maturity reviews and assessments into tangible policy recommendations and investment strategies, allowing policymakers to develop their countries’ cybersecurity capacity. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 324 pages].

Resources Required to Meet the U.S. Army’s Enlisted Recruiting Requirements under Alternative Recruiting Goals, Conditions, and Eligibility Policies

Resources Required to Meet the U.S. Army’s Enlisted Recruiting Requirements under Alternative Recruiting Goals, Conditions, and Eligibility Policies. RAND Corporation. David Knapp et al. July 12, 2018

 The purpose of this research is to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of the Army’s use of recruiting resources and policies. A theoretical model was estimated based on the Army’s recruiting experience. Using this model, a tool was created for the Army’s use in assessing alternative courses of action and optimizing resource levels and mix under alternative enlisted accession goals, labor market conditions, and recruit eligibility policies. Understanding how recruiting resources and recruit eligibility policies work together as a system under varying recruiting requirements and environments is critical for decision makers who want to use their limited resources to efficiently and effectively achieve the Army’s accession requirements. The recruiting resource model developed in this report considers the relationship among the monthly level and mix of recruiting resources, recruit eligibility policies, accumulated contracts, and training seat targets. It models how these factors combine to produce monthly accessions and the number of enlistment contracts at the fiscal year’s end that are scheduled to access in the following fiscal year. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 148 pages].

The U.S., NATO, and the Defense of Europe: Underlying Trends

The U.S., NATO, and the Defense of Europe: Underlying Trends. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Anthony H. Cordesman. June 27, 2018

 The Trump Administration has adopted an “America First” strategy, and taken aggressive stands on NATO burden sharing, trade, the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran, and the treatment of refugees that have led many in Europe to question its support for NATO and the Transatlantic Alliance. At least some European security experts talk about the U.S. as it was backing away from the NATO alliance, and a split between the United States and Europe that will force Europe to create its own approach to creating military and other security forces.

Many aspects of the Trump Administration’s approach to foreign policy are as controversial in the U.S. as in Europe, and President Trump has proved to be an exceptionally volatile and combative leader who can express himself in extreme terms and suddenly change his positions. However, it but it is important to note the underlying realities that shape the new U.S. strategy, the U.S. military role in the NATO alliance, and Europe’s own divisions and failures to create effective forces. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 60 pages].

Confronting the Global Forced Migration Crisis: A Report of the CSIS Task Force on the Global Forced Migration Crisis

Confronting the Global Forced Migration Crisis: A Report of the CSIS Task Force on the Global Forced Migration Crisis. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Daniel F. Runde et al. May 29, 2018

 The size and scope of the global forced migration crisis are unprecedented. Almost 66 million people worldwide have been forced from home by conflict. If recent trends continue, this figure could increase to between 180 and 320 million people by 2030. This global crisis already poses serious challenges to economic growth and risks to stability and national security, as well as an enormous human toll affecting tens of millions of people. These issues are on track to get worse; without significant course correction soon, the forced migration issues confronted today will seem simple decades from now. Yet, efforts to confront the crisis continue to be reactive in addressing these and other core issues. The United States should broaden the scope of its efforts beyond the tactical and reactive to see the world through a more strategic lens colored by the challenges posed—and opportunities created—by the forced migration crisis at home and abroad. CSIS convened a diverse task force in 2017 to study the global forced migration crisis. This report is a result of those findings. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 67 pages].

Friendly Force Dilemmas in Europe: Challenges Within and Among Intergovernmental Organizations and the Implications for the U.S. Army

Friendly Force Dilemmas in Europe: Challenges Within and Among Intergovernmental Organizations and the Implications for the U.S. Army. Strategic Studies Institute. Jose Luis Calvo Albero et al. May 23, 2018.

 The transatlantic community is facing a vast array of security challenges in Europe. The principal intergovernmental organizations—the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—responsible for rising to these challenges face a number of hurdles. This monograph takes a unique perspective—that of European partners and allies—in suggesting to U.S. policymakers how Washington ought to consider adjusting its approach in Europe and beyond, as a means of helping NATO and the EU to provide credible and sustainable collective security and defense. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 45 pages].