Europe in 2019: A Critical and Transitional Year

Europe in 2019: A Critical and Transitional Year. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Rachel Ellehuus, Ricklef Beutin, Quentin Lopinot. February 7, 2019

CSIS Europe Program experts Rachel Ellehuus, Ricklef Beutin, and Quentin Lopinot provide a snapshot on some of the most significant events on the European and transatlantic security and defense calendar for 2019 and the important stakes that are at play. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 6 pages].

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Trans-Atlantic Scorecard – January 2019

Trans-Atlantic Scorecard – January 2019. Brookings Institution. January 18, 2019

Welcome to the second edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE), as part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative.
To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations with Europe—overall and in the political, security, and economic dimensions—as well as on the state of U.S. relations with five key countries and the European Union itself. We also ask about several major issues in the news. The poll for this edition of the survey was conducted January 7-10, 2019.
The experts’ analysis is complemented by a Snapshot of the relationship over the previous four calendar months, including a timeline of significant moments, a tracker of President Trump’s telephone conversations with European leaders, figures presenting data relevant to the relationship, and CUSE Director Thomas Wright’s take on what to watch in the coming months. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[HTML format, various paging].

National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t

National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t. RAND Corporation.  Michael J. McNerney et al. September 20, 2018

 What drives some governments to persevere in war at any price while others choose to stop fighting? It is often less-tangible political and economic variables, rather than raw military power, that ultimately determine national will to fight. In this analysis, the authors explore how these variables strengthen or weaken a government’s determination to conduct sustained military operations, even when the expectation of success decreases or the need for significant political, economic, and military sacrifices increases.

This report is part of a broader RAND Arroyo Center effort to help U.S. leaders better understand and influence will to fight at both the national level and the tactical and operational levels. It presents findings and recommendations based on a wide-ranging literature review, a series of interviews, 15 case studies (including deep dives into conflicts involving the Korean Peninsula and Russia), and reviews of relevant modeling and war-gaming.

The authors propose an exploratory model of 15 variables that can be tailored and applied to a wide set of conflict scenarios and drive a much-needed dialogue among analysts conducting threat assessments, contingency plans, war games, and other efforts that require an evaluation of how future conflicts might unfold. The recommendations should provide insights into how leaders can influence will to fight in both allies and adversaries. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 154 pages].

Shifting Tides: Radical-Right Populism and Immigration Policy in Europe and the United States

Shifting Tides: Radical-Right Populism and Immigration Policy in Europe and the United States. Migration Policy Institute. Martin A. Schain. August 2018.

 Even as populist radical-right parties have experienced mixed electoral success, their ideas have gained traction in Europe and the United States. This report analyzes the economic, political, and social factors behind the rise in support for the radical-right agenda, and the impact of this trend on immigration policymaking and the broader political landscape on both sides of the Atlantic. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 38 pages].

Developing Cybersecurity Capacity: A Proof-of-Concept Implementation Guide

Developing Cybersecurity Capacity: A Proof-of-Concept Implementation Guide. RAND Corporation. Jacopo Bellasioet al. August 2, 2018.

 The role played by information communication technologies (ICTs) and by the networks they generate and underpin has continuously increased throughout recent decades. From an economic perspective, the potential positive impact of the Internet and ICTs on growth and development has now been widely recognised. However, the cloak of immunity and anonymity that these technologies can provide, have led to a growth in illicit activities across cyberspace.

This document is a proof-of-concept operational toolbox designed to facilitate the development of national-level cybersecurity capacity building programmes and of holistic policy and investment strategies to tackle challenges in the cyber domain. The document seeks to enable a better translation of the results of national cyber maturity reviews and assessments into tangible policy recommendations and investment strategies, allowing policymakers to develop their countries’ cybersecurity capacity. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 324 pages].

Resources Required to Meet the U.S. Army’s Enlisted Recruiting Requirements under Alternative Recruiting Goals, Conditions, and Eligibility Policies

Resources Required to Meet the U.S. Army’s Enlisted Recruiting Requirements under Alternative Recruiting Goals, Conditions, and Eligibility Policies. RAND Corporation. David Knapp et al. July 12, 2018

 The purpose of this research is to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of the Army’s use of recruiting resources and policies. A theoretical model was estimated based on the Army’s recruiting experience. Using this model, a tool was created for the Army’s use in assessing alternative courses of action and optimizing resource levels and mix under alternative enlisted accession goals, labor market conditions, and recruit eligibility policies. Understanding how recruiting resources and recruit eligibility policies work together as a system under varying recruiting requirements and environments is critical for decision makers who want to use their limited resources to efficiently and effectively achieve the Army’s accession requirements. The recruiting resource model developed in this report considers the relationship among the monthly level and mix of recruiting resources, recruit eligibility policies, accumulated contracts, and training seat targets. It models how these factors combine to produce monthly accessions and the number of enlistment contracts at the fiscal year’s end that are scheduled to access in the following fiscal year. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 148 pages].

The U.S., NATO, and the Defense of Europe: Underlying Trends

The U.S., NATO, and the Defense of Europe: Underlying Trends. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Anthony H. Cordesman. June 27, 2018

 The Trump Administration has adopted an “America First” strategy, and taken aggressive stands on NATO burden sharing, trade, the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran, and the treatment of refugees that have led many in Europe to question its support for NATO and the Transatlantic Alliance. At least some European security experts talk about the U.S. as it was backing away from the NATO alliance, and a split between the United States and Europe that will force Europe to create its own approach to creating military and other security forces.

Many aspects of the Trump Administration’s approach to foreign policy are as controversial in the U.S. as in Europe, and President Trump has proved to be an exceptionally volatile and combative leader who can express himself in extreme terms and suddenly change his positions. However, it but it is important to note the underlying realities that shape the new U.S. strategy, the U.S. military role in the NATO alliance, and Europe’s own divisions and failures to create effective forces. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

 [PDF format, 60 pages].