The Long Fuse: Misinformation and the 2020 Election

The Long Fuse: Misinformation and the 2020 Election. Atlantic Council. Election Integrity Partnership. March 2, 2021.

The Election Integrity Partnership, comprising organizations that specialize in understanding those information dynamics, aimed to create a model for whole-of-society collaboration and facilitate cooperation among partners dedicated to a free and fair election. With the narrow aim of defending the 2020 election against voting-related mis- and disinformation, it bridged the gap between government and civil society, helped to strengthen platform standards for combating election-related misinformation, and shared its findings with its stakeholders, media, and the American public. This report details our process and findings, and provides recommendations for future actions. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 282 pages].

What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling

What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling. Pew Research Center.  Scott Keeter et al. March 2, 2021.

Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is irrevocably broken,” that pollsters should be ignored, or that “the polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.”

The true picture of preelection polling’s performance is more nuanced than depicted by some of the early broad-brush postmortems, but it is clear that Trump’s strength was not fully accounted for in many, if not most, polls. Election polling, however, is just one application of public opinion polling, though obviously a prominent one. Pollsters often point to successes in forecasting elections as a reason to trust polling as a whole. But what is the relevance of election polling’s problems in 2020 for the rest of what public opinion polling attempts to do? Given the errors in 2016 and 2020, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues? [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 36 pages].

Majority of Americans Continue to Favor Moving Away from Electoral College

Majority of Americans Continue to Favor Moving Away from Electoral College. Pew Research Center.   Bradley Jones. January 27, 2021

The Electoral College has played an outsize role in several elections in recent memory, and a majority of Americans would welcome a change to the way presidents are elected.

Prior to the 2020 election, many observers noted that – if Donald Trump were to win – his most likely path toward victory would involve him winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote (as was the case in 2016). This did not happen, but the current political geography of the United States continues to allow for the possibility that the winner of the popular vote may not be able to secure enough Electoral College votes to win the office. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

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Protecting Democracy in an Age of Disinformation: Lessons from Taiwan

Protecting Democracy in an Age of Disinformation: Lessons from Taiwan. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Jude Blanchette, Bonnie S. Glaser, Scott Kennedy. January 27, 2021

Taiwan has long defended itself from political meddling, including disinformation, by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Attempts to influence Taiwan’s domestic politics have increased in both intensity and severity following the election of Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, with Beijing continuing to target the basic underpinnings of Taiwan’s democratic system. The disinformation campaigns carried out by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are often obscured by the secrecy and opacity of the CCP’s “united front” approach, which makes it difficult to accurately diagnose and right-size the problem of disinformation, complicating efforts to craft effective solutions.  While CCP disinformation campaigns pose a clearly identifiable threat to the United States and Taiwan, they are only one part of a larger disinformation problem facing democracies in this era of instant and omnipresent communication technologies. Indeed, the experience of both Taiwan and the United States suggest that rival political parties are incentivized to exaggerate and weaponize charges of “foreign interference” against each other—charges which often are more damaging to underlying trust levels in a democracy than the original foreign disinformation attacks themselves.  [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 35 pages].

Biden Begins Presidency with Positive Ratings; Trump Departs with Lowest-Ever Job Mark

Biden Begins Presidency with Positive Ratings; Trump Departs with Lowest-Ever Job Mark. Pew Research Center.  January 15, 2021

68% of public does not want Trump to remain a major political figure in the future

As Joe Biden prepares to take office just days after a deadly riot inside the U.S. Capitol, 64% of voters express a positive opinion of his conduct since he won the November election. Majorities also approve of Biden’s Cabinet selections and how he has explained his plans and policies for the future. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 56 pages].

Political Campaign Contributions and Congress: A Legal Primer

Political Campaign Contributions and Congress: A Legal Primer. Congressional Research Service. L. Paige Whitaker. September 8, 2020

To help curb corruption in the political process and safeguard First Amendment rights to freedom of speech and association, Congress has enacted laws that regulate political campaign contributions. These laws include political patronage and campaign finance laws.

Federal political patronage laws serve to protectfederal employees—including congressional staff—from being required to make campaign contributions as a condition of employment. These criminal laws include a prohibition on Members of Congress, congressional candidates, and congressional staff from knowingly soliciting federal office campaign contributions from another such officer, employee, or  person receiving compensation for services from money derived from the U.S. Treasury. Similarly, federal law prohibits congressional staff from making contributionsto a Member of Congress who is the staffer’s employer.Members of Congress and congressional staff are also prohibited from discharging, demoting, or promoting, or threatening to do so, another congressional employee for making or failing to make a campaign contribution to candidates for federal, state, and local office. Relating to federal workspace, federal law prohibits any person from soliciting or receiving a donation of money or other thing of value in connection with a federal, state, or local election from anyone located in federal workspace. In support of the policy underlying such laws, the Supreme Court has determined that, with the exception of policymaking and confidential government positions, personnel decisions made solely on the basis of political party association violate employee First Amendment rights to freedom of speech and association.

[PDF format, 34 pages].

Identifying TV Political and Issue Ad Sponsors in the Digital Age

Identifying TV Political and Issue Ad Sponsors in the Digital Age. Congressional Research Service. Dana A. Scherer. September 9, 2020

Since the 1930s, both Congress and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) have imposed specific requirements on the transmission of political and issue advertising by broadcasters. These rules, which now apply to broadcast radio and television stations, cable and satellite television distributors, and satellite radio services, mandate that the sponsors of political and issue ads be clearly identified within each announcement and that media organizations maintain files of political advertisers’ requests for advertising time and make those files available for public inspection.

[PDF format, 34 pages].

Foreign Interference in the 2020 Election: Tools for Detecting Online Election Interference

Foreign Interference in the 2020 Election: Tools for Detecting Online Election Interference. RAND Corporation. William Marcellino et al. October 8, 2020.

Given past threats to U.S. elections, it is possible that foreign actors will again try to influence the U.S. political campaign season of 2020 via social media. This report, the second in a series on information efforts by foreign actors, lays out the advocacy communities on Twitter that researchers identified as arguing about the election. It goes on to describe what appears to be an instance of election interference in these communities using trolls (fake personas spreading a variety of hyperpartisan themes) and superconnectors (highly networked accounts that can spread messages effectively and quickly). Although the origin of the accounts could not be identified definitively, this interference serves Russia’s interests and matches Russia’s interference playbook. The report describes the methods used to identify the questionable accounts and offers recommendations for response. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 32 pages].

Federal Election Results: Frequently Asked Questions

Federal Election Results: Frequently Asked Questions. Congressional Research Service.   Sarah J. Eckman, R. Sam Garrett, Karen L. Shanton. October 8, 2020. 

Several states have implemented new election administration processes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic that could affect how and when ballots are counted. Even under normal circumstances, finalizing federal election results takes days or weeks after election day. Among other steps, state, territorial, and local election officials canvass votes to ensure that ballots are valid and counted accurately. Election observers, audits, and other processes are designed to enhance transparency. This report addresses frequently asked questions on these and related subjects. The discussion emphasizes the period between the time a voter casts a ballot and when election officials certify, or finalize, the results.

[PDF format, 17 pages].

Election Day: Frequently Asked Questions

Election Day: Frequently Asked Questions. Congressional Research Service. Ben Leubsdorf. June 12, 2020

Election Day is the day legally established to select public officials in the United States. General elections for federal offices—President, Vice President, and U.S. Congress—are held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November in even-numbered years. Citizens vote for President and Vice President every four years, Representatives every two years, and Senators every six years; this excludes special elections to fill unexpired terms. State and local elections are often but not always held on the same day as federal elections.

This report provides responses to frequently asked questions about the history and current legal status of Election Day. It discusses how the first federal elections were held, how a single Election Day for federal offices was established in the 19th century, why the Tuesday after the first Monday in November was selected as Election Day, and related issues.

[PDF format, 7 pages].