The U.S. Labor Market in 2050: Supply, Demand and Policies to Improve Outcomes

The U.S. Labor Market in 2050: Supply, Demand and Policies to Improve Outcomes. Brookings Institution. Harry J. Holzer. May 31, 2019

Current estimates suggest that over the coming decades, slower population growth and lower labor force participation will constrain the supply of labor in the U.S. The U.S. labor force will also become more diverse as immigration and fertility trends increase the size of minority populations. New forms of automation will likely require workers to adapt to keep their old jobs, while many will be displaced or face less demand for their work (while others benefit). Firms will continue to implement alternative staffing arrangements, like turning workers into independent contractors or outsourcing their human resource management to other firms; and many will adopt “low-road” employment practices to keep labor costs low. Exactly whom these changes will benefit or harm remains unclear, the author finds, though non-college workers will likely fare the worst; higher productivity from new technologies and reduced labor supply could raise average wages, but many workers will clearly be worse off. According to the author, policymakers should provide incentives for firms to train current employees, rather than replace them, and should encourage schools and colleges to teach flexible, transferable skills, as the future workforce will likely need to adapt quickly to new and changing job requirements. Lifelong learning accounts for workers could help. Expanding wage insurance and improving unemployment insurance and workforce services could help workers adapt after suffering job displacement. Policies that make work pay, like the EITC, and others designed to increase labor force attachment, like paid family leave, could help mitigate declines in the labor force. Reforms in immigration and retirement policy will help as well, as would policy experimentation at the state and local level (with federal support). [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 51 pages].

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Cybersecurity: Changing the Model

Cybersecurity: Changing the Model. Atlantic Council. Franklin D. Kramer and Robert J. Butler. April 24, 2019

The current model of cybersecurity is outdated. Adversaries continue to grow more sophisticated and outpace advancements in defense technologies, processes, and education. As nation states enter into a new period of great power competition, the deficiencies in current cybersecurity practice, evidenced by the growing number of successful cyber-attacks from Russia, China, North Korea, and others, pose a greater threat.

The need to update the cybersecurity model is clear. An enhanced public-private model – based on coordinated, advanced protection and resilience – is necessary to protect key critical infrastructure sectors. In addition, enhanced action from the federal government, coupled with increased formal cooperation with international allies, are necessary to ensure comprehensive cybersecurity resilience. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 28 pages].

Artificial Intelligence Primer: What is Needed to Maximize AI’s Economic, Social, and Trade Opportunities

Artificial Intelligence Primer: What is Needed to Maximize AI’s Economic, Social, and Trade Opportunities. Brookings Institution. Joshua P. Meltzer. May 13, 2019

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform economic growth, commerce, and trade, affecting the types of jobs that are available and skills that are needed. The United States, China, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and others have recognized the opportunity and are supporting AI research and development as well as preparing their workforce.

For AI to develop also requires an enabling environment that includes new regulation in areas such as AI ethics and data access and revisiting existing laws and regulation in areas such as privacy and intellectual property (IP) rights to ensure that they work for AI. In addition, AI development requires an international agenda to avoid unnecessary regulatory heterogeneity that creates barriers to data access and use and impedes the global diffusion of AI products. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 26 pages].

How Will Retirement Saving Change by 2050? Prospects for the Millennial Generation

How Will Retirement Saving Change by 2050? Prospects for the Millennial Generation. Brookings Institution. William G. Gale, Hilary Gelfond, and Jason Fichtner. March 21, 2019

In “How Will Retirement Saving Change by 2050? Prospects for the Millennial Generation” William G. Gale, Hilary Gelfond, and Jason Fichtner consider prospects for retirement saving for members of the millennial generation, who will be between ages 54 and 69 in 2050. Adequacy of retirement saving preparation among current and near-retirees is marked by significant heterogeneity, a characteristic that will likely hold for Millennials as well. In preparing for retirement, Millennials will have several advantages relative to previous generations, such as more education, longer working lives, and more flexible work arrangements, but also several disadvantages, including having to take more responsibility for their own retirement plans and marrying and bearing children at later ages. The millennial generation contains a significantly higher percentage of minorities than previous generations. The authors find that minority households have tended to accumulate less wealth than whites in the past, even after controlling for income, education, and marital status, and the difference appears to be growing over time for black households relative to whites. Whether these trends persist is central to understanding how the Millennials will fare in retirement. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 51 pages].

Preparing the Future Workforce: Early Care and Education Participation among Children of Immigrants

Preparing the Future Workforce: Early Care and Education Participation among Children of Immigrants. Urban Institute. Erica Greenberg, Victoria Rosenboom, Gina Adams. March 22, 2019

Children of immigrants will make up a critical share of our nation’s future workforce, but they are less likely than other children to participate in early education programs known to support school readiness and long-term productivity. This study describes the characteristics and enrollment of children of immigrants using the most current and comprehensive dataset available: the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 2010–11. We find that children of immigrants tend to have fewer resources and greater need than children of US-born parents but lower rates of enrollment in center-based preschool. However, programs such as Head Start and state prekindergarten, as well as public kindergarten programs, are making progress in closing gaps in access. These findings suggest that current investments in early education are helping prepare the future workforce for success in 2050 and that expanded investments are warranted. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 38 pages].

Global Development Disrupted: Findings from a Survey of 93 Leaders

Global Development Disrupted: Findings from a Survey of 93 Leaders. Brookings Institution. George Ingram and Kristin M. Lord. March 26, 2019

A survey of 93 leaders, representing a wide range of organizations working to advance human well-being and economic development, reveals a global development sector in transition and perhaps even turmoil. Ending extreme poverty is no longer the defining lens through which development is viewed: State fragility and climate were mentioned nearly three times more often than poverty, and migration was mentioned more than twice as often. Leaders worry that responses to these and other global challenges are inadequate. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 56 pages].

Rebooting the Innovation Agenda

Rebooting the Innovation Agenda. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Jeffrey M. Alexander et al. March 11, 2019

The fourth industrial revolution is underway, and technological changes will disrupt economic systems, displace workers, concentrate power and wealth, and erode trust in public institutions and the democratic political process. Up until now, the focus has largely been on how technology itself will impact society, with little attention being paid to the role of institutions.

The relationship between societies and their institutions is changing, and countries will have to strengthen their capacities to avoid heightened social divisions. They must build resilience through gradual and intentional interventions designed for long-term, sustainable development. It is also essential that institutions work hard to build credibility and use available development tools, such as development finance institutions and foreign aid, to mitigate the risks of disruption.

Countries and other stakeholders must pioneer these initiatives to successfully navigate the disruptions stemming from the fourth industrial revolution. The revision of existing models of education, skill development and investment and the integration of different stakeholders into the conversation will be critical in helping institutions play a productive role in rebooting the innovation agenda. This new report, Rebooting the Innovation Agenda, analyzes the need for resilient institution and the role they are expected to play in the fourth industrial revolution. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 62 pages].