Current estimates suggest that over the coming decades,
slower population growth and lower labor force participation will constrain the
supply of labor in the U.S. The U.S. labor force will also become more diverse
as immigration and fertility trends increase the size of minority populations.
New forms of automation will likely require workers to adapt to keep their old
jobs, while many will be displaced or face less demand for their work (while
others benefit). Firms will continue to implement alternative staffing
arrangements, like turning workers into independent contractors or outsourcing
their human resource management to other firms; and many will adopt “low-road”
employment practices to keep labor costs low. Exactly whom these changes will
benefit or harm remains unclear, the author finds, though non-college workers
will likely fare the worst; higher productivity from new technologies and
reduced labor supply could raise average wages, but many workers will clearly
be worse off. According to the author, policymakers should provide incentives
for firms to train current employees, rather than replace them, and should
encourage schools and colleges to teach flexible, transferable skills, as the
future workforce will likely need to adapt quickly to new and changing job
requirements. Lifelong learning accounts for workers could help. Expanding wage
insurance and improving unemployment insurance and workforce services could
help workers adapt after suffering job displacement. Policies that make work
pay, like the EITC, and others designed to increase labor force attachment,
like paid family leave, could help mitigate declines in the labor force.
Reforms in immigration and retirement policy will help as well, as would policy
experimentation at the state and local level (with federal support). [Note: contains copyrighted material].
The current model of cybersecurity is outdated. Adversaries
continue to grow more sophisticated and outpace advancements in defense
technologies, processes, and education. As nation states enter into a new
period of great power competition, the deficiencies in current cybersecurity
practice, evidenced by the growing number of successful cyber-attacks from
Russia, China, North Korea, and others, pose a greater threat.
The need to update the cybersecurity model is clear. An
enhanced public-private model – based on coordinated, advanced protection and
resilience – is necessary to protect key critical infrastructure sectors. In
addition, enhanced action from the federal government, coupled with increased
formal cooperation with international allies, are necessary to ensure
comprehensive cybersecurity resilience. [Note: contains copyrighted
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform
economic growth, commerce, and trade, affecting the types of jobs that are
available and skills that are needed. The United States, China, Japan, Germany,
the United Kingdom, France, and others have recognized the opportunity and are
supporting AI research and development as well as preparing their workforce.
For AI to develop also requires an enabling environment that
includes new regulation in areas such as AI ethics and data access and revisiting
existing laws and regulation in areas such as privacy and intellectual property
(IP) rights to ensure that they work for AI. In addition, AI development
requires an international agenda to avoid unnecessary regulatory heterogeneity
that creates barriers to data access and use and impedes the global diffusion
of AI products. [Note: contains copyrighted material].
In “How Will Retirement Saving Change by 2050? Prospects for
the Millennial Generation” William G. Gale, Hilary Gelfond, and Jason Fichtner
consider prospects for retirement saving for members of the millennial
generation, who will be between ages 54 and 69 in 2050. Adequacy of retirement
saving preparation among current and near-retirees is marked by significant
heterogeneity, a characteristic that will likely hold for Millennials as well.
In preparing for retirement, Millennials will have several advantages relative
to previous generations, such as more education, longer working lives, and more
flexible work arrangements, but also several disadvantages, including having to
take more responsibility for their own retirement plans and marrying and
bearing children at later ages. The millennial generation contains a
significantly higher percentage of minorities than previous generations. The
authors find that minority households have tended to accumulate less wealth
than whites in the past, even after controlling for income, education, and
marital status, and the difference appears to be growing over time for black
households relative to whites. Whether these trends persist is central to
understanding how the Millennials will fare in retirement. [Note: contains copyrighted material].
Children of immigrants will make up a critical share of our
nation’s future workforce, but they are less likely than other children to
participate in early education programs known to support school readiness and
long-term productivity. This study describes the characteristics and enrollment
of children of immigrants using the most current and comprehensive dataset
available: the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of
2010–11. We find that children of immigrants tend to have fewer resources and
greater need than children of US-born parents but lower rates of enrollment in
center-based preschool. However, programs such as Head Start and state
prekindergarten, as well as public kindergarten programs, are making progress
in closing gaps in access. These findings suggest that current investments in
early education are helping prepare the future workforce for success in 2050
and that expanded investments are warranted. [Note:
contains copyrighted material].
A survey of 93 leaders, representing a wide range of
organizations working to advance human well-being and economic development,
reveals a global development sector in transition and perhaps even turmoil.
Ending extreme poverty is no longer the defining lens through which development
is viewed: State fragility and climate were mentioned nearly three times more
often than poverty, and migration was mentioned more than twice as often.
Leaders worry that responses to these and other global challenges are
inadequate. [Note: contains copyrighted material].
The fourth industrial revolution is underway, and
technological changes will disrupt economic systems, displace workers,
concentrate power and wealth, and erode trust in public institutions and the
democratic political process. Up until now, the focus has largely been on how
technology itself will impact society, with little attention being paid to the
role of institutions.
The relationship between societies and their institutions is
changing, and countries will have to strengthen their capacities to avoid
heightened social divisions. They must build resilience through gradual and intentional
interventions designed for long-term, sustainable development. It is also
essential that institutions work hard to build credibility and use available
development tools, such as development finance institutions and foreign aid, to
mitigate the risks of disruption.
Countries and other stakeholders must pioneer these
initiatives to successfully navigate the disruptions stemming from the fourth
industrial revolution. The revision of existing models of education, skill
development and investment and the integration of different stakeholders into
the conversation will be critical in helping institutions play a productive
role in rebooting the innovation agenda. This new report, Rebooting the
Innovation Agenda, analyzes the need for resilient institution and the role
they are expected to play in the fourth industrial revolution. [Note: contains copyrighted material].