After Brexit: Alternate forms of Brexit and their implications for the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States. RAND Corporation. Charles P. Ries et al. December 11, 2017.
Whether Brexit is judged to be success or not will depend to some degree on its economic impact. Much of the debate in the UK around Brexit has been focused on a ‘hard’ or ‘soft Brexit’, which relates to whether the UK should leave the Single Market and the Customs Union. However, there are a range of different trade opportunities and arrangements that could happen between the UK and European Union (EU), and other countries, such as the U.S., post-Brexit.
RAND explored eight plausible post-Brexit trade scenarios involving the UK, EU and U.S. after Brexit. Game theory insights were also used to create a better understanding of how a variety of factors might affect the outcome of Brexit negotiations. [Note: contains copyrighted material].
[PDF format, 159 pages, 1.31 MB].
Making the Best of Brexit for the EU-27 Financial System. Peterson Institute for International Economics. Policy Brief 17-8. André Sapir, Dirk Schoenmaker and Nicolas Véron. February 2017
As a consequence of Britain’s exit from the European Union, UK-based financial firms are expected to lose their regulatory passport to do direct business with their clients in the EU-27. Brexit will lead to a partial migration of financial services activities from London to locations in the EU-27 to continue serving their customers there. Other London-based activities might also be relocated to non-European jurisdictions, primarily the United States. This Policy Brief focuses on the implications of Brexit for the EU-27 financial system. The authors estimate that about €1.8 trillion (or 17 percent) of all UK banking assets might be on the move as a direct consequence of Brexit. Market fragmentation—if the EU-27 receives the UK business as 27 separate jurisdictions as opposed to one single financial space—would increase borrowing costs for corporations and households, compared with an integrated market for the EU-27. Different countries and cities will naturally compete for business moving out of London. EU-27 leaders need to set clear objectives for reshaping the post-Brexit financial system. The authors recommend enhancing the role of the European Securities and Markets Authority, strengthening the banking union, and improving oversight of the EU-27’s financial system infrastructure. [Note: contains copyrighted material].
[PDF format, 8 pages, 160.31 KB].
Brexit Could End Up Strengthening the European Union. YaleGlobal. Chris Miller. August 9, 2016.
The European Union may strengthen after voters in the United Kingdom elected to withdraw from the Union, and Miller offers analysis as to why: Britain’s economic challenges could prompt hesitation among other members contemplating a similar move. The EU will drive a hard bargain, refusing to give in to unreasonable demands by voters who were lulled with wild promises. Finally, the EU remains a key force for resolving Europe’s many challenges. Polls indicate that news of Britain’s economic struggles is reinforcing European appreciation for the common market. [Note: contains copyrighted material].
[HTML format, various paging].