Unexpected Competition: A US Strategy to Keep its Central and Eastern European Allies as Allies in an Era of Great-Power Competition

Unexpected Competition: A US Strategy to Keep its Central and Eastern European Allies as Allies in an Era of Great-Power Competition.   Atlantic Council. John Blocher. November 22, 2020.    

As China and Russia make inroads with traditional US allies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the United States is faced with unexpected competition. To keep these US allies as allies for years to come, policymakers should heed the roadmap offered in this strategy paper, which focuses on the case study of Hungary to recommend ways to deepen alliances with CEE nations. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 40 pages].

Digitalization in Central and Eastern Europe: Building regional cooperation

Digitalization in Central and Eastern Europe: Building regional cooperation. Atlantic Council. October 28, 2020.

Digitalization has been heralded as “the next engine of growth” for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the idea that digitalization can transform the region’s economic model has never been more relevant than amid the current coronavirus pandemic. In the 2018 seminal “Digital Challengers” study, McKinsey & Company estimated that a concerted effort at digitalization could add up to €200 billion to the region’s GDP. Now, accelerated digital adaptation provides an opportunity for Central and Eastern Europe to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis stronger and more resilient. If the region is to leverage digitalization to fuel economic recovery and overcome some of its own limitations—from market size and fragmentation to access to capital and the investor appeal of local technology clusters—there seem to be few alternatives to working together at a regional level.

But for a variety of reasons, it has proven challenging to build greater cooperation and policy coordination among CEE countries in this area. Even though there is a general consensus on the digital potential of the CEE countries, there is little clarity about how Central and Eastern Europe as a region can best move forward with digitalization to secure its full benefits and become leaders in shaping its future trajectory.

Convinced of the role digitalization can play in Central and Eastern Europe’s economic future and encouraged by new momentum in the debate, the Atlantic Council convened a task force of US and CEE digital innovators, experts, and thought leaders. This task force report seeks to move beyond the generalities about digitalization in Central and Eastern Europe. It lays out recommendations to strengthen regional cooperation on digital priorities, leverage existing regional forums such as the Three Seas Initiative, and amplify the region’s voice on the digital agenda—both in the EU and across the Atlantic. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 40 pages].

European Public Opinion Three Decades After the Fall of Communism

European Public Opinion Three Decades After the Fall of Communism. Pew Research Center. Richard Wike et al. October 15, 2019.

Most embrace democracy and the EU, but many worry about the political and economic future

Thirty years ago, a wave of optimism swept across Europe as walls and regimes fell, and long-oppressed publics embraced open societies, open markets and a more united Europe. Three decades later, a new Pew Research Center survey finds that few people in the former Eastern Bloc regret the monumental changes of 1989-1991. Yet, neither are they entirely content with their current political or economic circumstances. Indeed, like their Western European counterparts, substantial shares of Central and Eastern European citizens worry about the future on issues like inequality and the functioning of their political systems. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 189 pages].

The Western Balkans with Chinese Characteristics

The Western Balkans with Chinese Characteristics. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Heather A. Conley, Jonathan E. Hillman, Matthew Melino. July 30, 2019

In 2012, China and 11 EU countries from Central and Southern Europe and 5 non-EU members from the Western Balkans met in Warsaw, Poland for the first time in a “16+1” format to deepen economic cooperation in the areas of infrastructure as well as information and green technological development. The occasion was marked by the signing of “China’s Twelve Measures for Promoting Friendly Cooperation with Central and Eastern European Countries” and the official launch of the 16+1. Seven years later in Dubrovnik, Croatia, the format has now grown to “17+1” with the inclusion of Greece. Nearly 40 bilateral deals were announced between China and partner countries, which included the opening of credit lines between the China Development Bank and Hungary worth €500 million, Croatia worth €300 million, Romania worth €100 million, Bulgaria worth €300 million, and Serbia worth €25 million.

It could be suggested that this region was in fact an early test case for the Chinese government’s 2013 announcement of its global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which envisions land and maritime transportation corridors stretching across and around the Eurasian landmass to Europe. Certainly, there was a strong infrastructure demand signal emanating from the region, which grew frustrated when its needs for new roads, modern ports, and high-speed rail went unmet by Western investment. Having developed the unique, mixed EU and non-EU 16+1 structure, Beijing could claim to be helping to “bridge” the EU and non-EU divide. It also gained a high-profile vehicle to channel a portion of the BRI’s $1 trillion in promised infrastructure investment. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

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Views of National Identity Differ Less by Age in Central, Eastern Europe than in Western Europe

Views of National Identity Differ Less by Age in Central, Eastern Europe than in Western Europe. Pew Research Center. Jeff Diamant and Scott Gardner. December 4, 2018

Young adults in many Western European nations are substantially less likely than older people to say that being Christian, being native to their country, or having ancestry there is important to national belonging – that is, to being “truly British,” “truly French,” and so on.
But in Central and Eastern Europe, there often are no such divides between young adults and older people. Indeed, in many countries in this part of Europe, people of different ages are about equally likely to say that Christianity, birthplace and ancestry are important to national identity. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

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