The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals Supply Chains

The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals Supply Chains. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Jane Nakano. March 11, 2021

As clean energy technology becomes the latest frontier for geoeconomic rivalry, the security of supply chains for rare earths and critical minerals—essential materials for clean energy—has become a global strategic issue.

The fragility of global supply chains revealed by Covid-19 and rising competition from China have only heightened the importance of supply chain security for critical minerals.

This report compares strategies and actions taken by the United States, European Union, and Japan, illuminating key economic, security, and geopolitical factors behind these evolving approaches to enhance the security of critical minerals supply chains. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 38 pages].

The Shifting Roles of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Light of Covid-19

The Shifting Roles of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Light of Covid-19. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Jack Caporal, Victoria Meyer. February 23, 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic has drastically affected both the U.S. and the global economy. In February 2020, the U.S. unemployment rate was at near lows of 3.8 percent. By April, it reached 14.7 percent—nearly five percentage points higher than the peak of the Great Recession. While many of these unemployment claims were temporary, the economy is still in distress. In October 2020, 40 U.S. states either added fewer jobs than in August or lost jobs. The U.S. national rate of job growth in September and October was less than half its August rate. By January 2021, the economy had over 9 million fewer jobs than prior to the pandemic. Permanent job losses remained elevated in January at 3.5 million, 2.2 million more than the previous February. The labor force participation level was 1.9 percent lower than February 2020, indicating that individuals who left the workforce have not rejoined it. In terms of the global economy, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2020 World Economic Outlook predicted that the world real GDP would fall by 4.4 percent from 2019. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 15 pages].

From Industrial Policy to Innovation Strategy: Lessons from Japan, Europe, and the United States

From Industrial Policy to Innovation Strategy: Lessons from Japan, Europe, and the United States. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Dylan Gerstel, Matthew P. Goodman. September 1, 2020

In response to today’s economic challenges—particularly managing the Covid-19 pandemic and the rise of China—prominent U.S. policymakers and political figures on both sides of the aisle, as well as business leaders, have called for more active government efforts to boost domestic production and innovation. However, there is significant disagreement about how to do so.

This report focuses on the role of government in supporting innovation in critical technologies, although there are other challenges—notably Covid-19—where greater federal intervention could be appropriate. To help further the discussion, we reviewed historical approaches to industrial policy in three advanced democracies: Japan, Western Europe, and the United States. Reflecting on those experiences, we present in this report a set of ten “first principles” intended to guide a more active U.S. innovation strategy to reaffirm the country’s leadership in critical technologies. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 41 pages].

Productivity Comparisons: Lessons from Japan, the United States, and Germany

Productivity Comparisons: Lessons from Japan, the United States, and Germany. Brookings Institution. Martin Neil Baily, Barry P. Bosworth, and Siddhi Doshi. January 22, 2020

Economic growth provides broad and substantial benefits. When growth is strong, household incomes rise, and wages increase; it becomes much easier to balance budgets and to meet the needs of the poorest members of society. Overall economic growth does not guarantee that everyone in an economy will be better off, but it helps.

Strong economic growth, in turn, comes from two sources, the growth in the workforce and the growth in output per worker (that is, labor productivity). The demographic trend in advanced economies has been towards lower birth rates leading to slower growth in the population and in the labor force, with the population aging as its growth slows. Immigration can supplement the growth of the domestic population, but this can generate social stresses and political problems. In the advanced economies, labor force growth is much slower than in past, particularly in Japan but also in Germany and the United States, with a negative impact on the rate of increase of national incomes. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 40 pages].

We’ll Live to 100 – How Can We Afford It?

We’ll Live to 100 – How Can We Afford It? World Economic Forum. May 26, 2017.

This paper addresses the challenges facing retirement systems, including the impact of ageing societies, and quantifies the size of the savings shortfall. It provides recommendations for system design and actions for policy-makers to ensure we can adjust to societies in which living to 100 is commonplace and affordable for all. The paper is accompanied by the Case Studies in Retirement System Reform which presents 12 examples of pension reform from governments, pension funds and companies around the world. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 24 pages, 1.68 MB].

Case Studies in Retirement System Reform

Case Studies in Retirement System Reform. World Economic Forum. May 26, 2017.

The challenges of providing ageing societies with a financially secure retirement are well known. In most countries, standards of living and healthcare advancements are allowing people to live longer. While this should be celebrated, the implications for the financial systems designed to meet retirement needs, which are already under severe strain in many nations, must be considered.
Besides increasing life expectancies and lower birth rates, additional factors are increasing the strain on global retirement systems such as lack of easy access to pensions, inadequate savings rates, long-term low growth environment and low levels of financial literacy.

This handbook presents 12 case studies on the approaches that governments, pension funds and companies have taken to address the challenges that their own retirement systems face. It highlights initiatives undertaken and lessons learned to guide those seeking future pension reforms. The handbook accompanies the white paper We’ll Live to 100 – How Can We Afford It? [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 60 pages, 3.36 MB].

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): In Brief

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): In Brief. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. Ian F. Fergusson et al. February 9, 2016.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) among 12 Asia-Pacific countries, with both economic and strategic significance for the United States. If approved, it would be the largest FTA in which the United States participates. The 12 countries announced the conclusion of the TPP negotiations and released the text of the agreement in late 2015, after several years of ongoing talks. Trade ministers from the TPP countries signed the final agreement on February 4, 2016, but Congress would need to pass implementing legislation for the agreement to enter into force for the United States. Such legislation would be eligible to receive expedited legislative consideration under the recent grant of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), P.L. 114-26, if Congress determines the Administration has advanced the TPA negotiating objectives, and met various notification and consultation requirements. TPP negotiating parties include Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam.

[PDF format, 16 pages, 721.59 KB].

War Drums in Asia: Back to the European Future?

War Drums in Asia: Back to the European Future? YaleGlobal. Alistair Burnett. February 11, 2014.

This year marks the centenary of the First World War in Europe and has prompted comparisons with rising tensions between China and Japan, and the United States and China. A shifting balance of power adds to tensions. A small or accidental clash combined with alliance commitments could cause a wider war, suggests Alistair Burnett. China’s fast-growing economy, increased military spending, growing influence and demands for resources have unnerved established powers and their close allies. China and Japan have strong trade tie, but the Japanese prime minister has pointed out that strong economic links between Germany and Britain did not prevent war in 1914. The Chinese contend that Japan has not atoned sufficiently for atrocities committed during occupations throughout the 20th century. The two nations also quarrel over small islands. Patrols and small clashes between the Japanese and Chinese could lead to larger conflict that could force Asian nations to take sides. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[HTML format, various paging].

Global Currency Battles: A Waiting Disaster or a Win for All?

Global Currency Battles: A Waiting Disaster or a Win for All? Knowledge @ Wharton. March 13, 2013.

To many, Japan’s recent moves to devalue the yen looked like the spark that could ignite a global currency war, a series of competitive devaluations that, last century, helped plunge the world into the Great Depression. Until now, central bankers have been resisting the urge to politicize exchange rates. However, while currency skirmishes can be dangerous and require monitoring, they are also necessary for establishing equilibrium in markets and will help in the global economic recovery, some experts say, according to the report. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 3 pages, 184.26 KB].