The Payoff to America from Globalization: A Fresh Look with a Focus on Costs to Workers

The Payoff to America from Globalization: A Fresh Look with a Focus on Costs to Workers. Peterson Institute for International Economics. Policy Brief, 17-16. Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu. May 2017

Hufbauer and Lu, updating a landmark PIIE study made in 2005, calculate the payoff to the United States from trade expansion from 1950 to 2016 at $2.1 trillion. The payoff has stemmed from trade expansion resulting from policy liberalization and improved transportation and communications technology. The sum translates into an increase of $7,014 in GDP per capita and $18,131 in GDP per household. The potential gains from future policy liberalization could be as large as $540 billion for the United States by the year 2025, or an increase of $1,670 in GDP per capita and $4,400 in GDP per household. On the other hand, 156,250 manufacturing sector jobs were lost annually over the past 13 years, representing less than a percent of the number of people involuntary separated from their jobs each year. A more generous unemployment insurance program and expanded tax credits would help displaced workers adjust, the authors argue, while preserving the large gains resulting from trade expansion. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 27 pages, 385.11 KB].

Global Order and the New Regionalism: Discussion Paper Series on Global and Regional Governance

Global Order and the New Regionalism: Discussion Paper Series on Global and Regional Governance. Council on Foreign Relations. September 2016.

Regional institutions and initiatives have proliferated in the twenty-first century. This latest wave of regional innovation raises, in new guise, a long-standing conundrum for global order and U.S. foreign policy: When is regional organization a useful, even essential, complement to the ends of global governance—financial stability, an open trading system, sustainable development, robust protection of human rights, or the end of civil wars—and when does it threaten or undermine the achievement of those goals? The new regionalism presents the prospect for new benefits for global order as well as new risks. How those challenges and risks are addressed, by the United States and by other member states, will determine whether a fragmented global order or more effective global and regional governance emerge over the next decade.
Five authors examine these dilemmas across five issue areas: finance, trade, development lending, human rights, and peace operations. In each issue area, regional actors and institutions have emerged that reopen and recast earlier debates about regionalism and its effects on global order. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 88 pages, 1.75 MB].

Trade-Based Money Laundering: Overview and Policy Issues

Trade-Based Money Laundering: Overview and Policy Issues. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. Rena S. Miller et al. June 22, 2016.

The U.S. government has historically focused on TBML schemes involving drug proceeds from Latin America, particularly the Black Market Peso Exchange (BMPE). Although a number of anecdotal case studies in recent years have revealed instances in which TBML is used by known terrorist groups and other non-state armed groups, including Hezbollah, the Treasury Department’s June 2015 National Terrorist Financing Risk Assessment concluded that TBML is not a dominant method for terrorist financing.

[PDF format, 21 pages, 866.5 KB].

Ten Arguments for TTIP and the Concerns to Address

Ten Arguments for TTIP and the Concerns to Address. Atlantic Council. Andrea Montanino and Earl Anthony Wayne. April 21, 2016.

The United States and the European Union (EU) share the largest trade and investment relationship in the world, with more than $5.5 trillion in commerce every year and up to fifteen million jobs generated on both sides of the Atlantic. Currently under negotiations, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will bolster this key partnership, increasing efficiency, spurring job creation, and generating opportunities for innovation and small and medium enterprises. At a time of slow recovery from the 2009 recession, a comprehensive agreement that protects high quality standards can send a powerful signal to the rest of the world, highlighting the United States’ and Europe’s dynamism. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 29 pages, 1.95 MB].

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): In Brief

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): In Brief. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. Ian F. Fergusson et al. February 9, 2016.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) among 12 Asia-Pacific countries, with both economic and strategic significance for the United States. If approved, it would be the largest FTA in which the United States participates. The 12 countries announced the conclusion of the TPP negotiations and released the text of the agreement in late 2015, after several years of ongoing talks. Trade ministers from the TPP countries signed the final agreement on February 4, 2016, but Congress would need to pass implementing legislation for the agreement to enter into force for the United States. Such legislation would be eligible to receive expedited legislative consideration under the recent grant of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), P.L. 114-26, if Congress determines the Administration has advanced the TPA negotiating objectives, and met various notification and consultation requirements. TPP negotiating parties include Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam.

[PDF format, 16 pages, 721.59 KB].

Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on U.S. Presidential Voting

Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on U.S. Presidential Voting. National Bureau of Economic Research. J. Bradford Jensen et al. January 2016.

The paper studies how international trade influences U.S. presidential elections. It expects the positive employment effects of expanding exports to increase support for the incumbent’s party, and job insecurity from import competition to diminish such support. Our national-level models show for the first time that increasing imports are associated with decreasing incumbent vote shares, and increasing exports correlate with increasing vote shares for incumbents. These effects are large and politically consequential. Incumbent parties are particularly vulnerable to losing votes in swing states with high concentrations of low-skilled manufacturing workers with increasing trade exposure. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 71 pages, 963.5 KB].

Pacific Trade Deal Needs to Harmonize With Sustainable Development Goals

Pacific Trade Deal Needs to Harmonize With Sustainable Development Goals. YaleGlobal. Shuaihua Wallace Cheng. October 22, 2015.

Developed and poorer developing nations often struggle to agree on global initiatives. But two major deals have been announced: The 193 members of the United Nations approved global action on 17 Sustainable Development Goals to reduce poverty, and 12 nations concluded negotiations on the Transpacific Trade Partnership, the largest regional trade agreement in history. The trade agreement supports the sustainable development goals in some ways and undermines them in others, explains Cheng. The world needs global leadership on trade that promotes sustainability and the United States could be in the position to provide such leadership, notes Cheng. The next chance is December’s World Trade Organization ministerial meeting at which the United States could encourage trade practices that promote freedom and fairness while reducing poverty. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

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