Epidemiological and Economic Effects of Lockdown

Epidemiological and Economic Effects of Lockdown. Brookings Institution.  Alexander D. Arnon, John A. Ricco, and Kent A. Smetters. September 23, 2020

Orders encouraging people to leave their homes for only their most essential needs during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic reduced deaths at a lower economic cost than mandatory business shutdowns, suggests a paper to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on September 24.

The paper’s authors—Alex Arnon, John Ricco, and Kent Smetters of the University of Pennsylvania—created an integrated framework that evaluated the health and economic effects of “non-pharmaceutical interventions” by state and local governments at the county level. They focused on three major interventions—stay-at-home orders, nonessential business closures, and school closures. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 53 pages].