Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations

Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations. Pew Research Center. Courtney Kennedy et al. April 8, 2021

The 2016 and 2020 elections raised questions about the state of public opinion polling. Some of the criticism was premature or overheated, considering that polling ultimately got key contours of the 2020 election correct (e.g., the Electoral College and national popular vote winner; Democrats taking control of the Senate). But the consistency with which most poll results differed from those election outcomes is undeniable. Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.

This report summarizes new research into the data quality of Pew Research Center’s U.S. polling. It builds on prior studies that have benchmarked the Center’s data against authoritative estimates for nonelectoral topics like smoking rates, employment rates or health care coverage. As context, the Center conducts surveys using its online panel, the American Trends Panel (ATP). The ATP is recruited offline via random national sampling of residential addresses. Each survey is statistically adjusted to match national estimates for political party identification and registered voter status in addition to demographics and other benchmarks. The analysis in this report probes whether the ATP is in any way underrepresenting Republicans, either by recruiting too few into the panel or by losing Republicans at a higher rate. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 25 pages].

Many in U.S., Western Europe Say Their Political System Needs Major Reform

Many in U.S., Western Europe Say Their Political System Needs Major Reform. Pew Research Center.  Richard Wike et al. March 31, 2021

Americans are especially likely to say politicians are corrupt

As they continue to struggle with a public health crisis and ongoing economic challenges, many people in the United States and Western Europe are also frustrated with politics.

A four-nation Pew Research Center survey conducted in November and December of 2020 finds that roughly two-thirds of adults in France and the U.S., as well as about half in the United Kingdom, believe their political system needs major changes or needs to be completely reformed. Calls for significant reform are less common in Germany, where about four-in-ten express this view. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 39 pages].

Countering Foreign Interference in U.S. Elections

Countering Foreign Interference in U.S. Elections. RAND Corporation. Marek N. Posard, Hilary Reininger, Todd C. Helmus. March 29, 2021.

This report is the fourth in a four-part series aimed at helping policymakers and the public understand—and mitigate—the threat of online foreign interference in national, state, and local elections. During future U.S. political campaigns, Russia might try again to manipulate and divide U.S. voters via social media. Given the past and likely extant threats to U.S. elections, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services asked for research to help analyze, forecast, and mitigate threats by foreign actors targeting local, state, and national elections.

This report first describes research from focus groups and individual interviews on how people respond to memes sourced in Russia that were designed to breed dissension and to a public service announcement (PSA) warning about such online manipulation, then outlines a strategy to counter foreign interference in U.S. elections. The authors posit that adversaries are trying to exploit fault lines that already exist within U.S. society. These efforts could be effectively countered by collecting open-source intelligence on social media; releasing a simple, well-designed PSA for use during election cycles that warns the public about strategic threats targeting U.S. elections; and coordinating with social media companies to flag the source of foreign political content. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 68 pages].

U.S. Energy in the 21st Century: A Primer

U.S. Energy in the 21st Century: A Primer. Congressional Research Service.  Melissa N. Diaz et al. March 16, 2021.

Since the start of the 21st century, the U.S. energy system has changed tremendously. Technological advances in energy production have driven changes in energy consumption, and the United States has moved from being a net importer of most forms of energy to a declining importer—and a net exporter in 2019. The United States remains the second largest producer and consumer of energy in the world, behind China.

[PDF format, 53 pages].

Republicans and Democrats Move Further Apart in Views of Voting Access

Republicans and Democrats Move Further Apart in Views of Voting Access. Pew Research Center. April 22, 2021

Declining shares of Republicans favor ‘no excuse’ absentee and early voting, automatically registering all eligible citizens to vote

In the months since the 2020 election, partisan conflicts over election rules and procedures – both at the state and federal levels – have become increasingly contentious.

Among U.S. adults overall, sizable majorities favor several policies aimed at making it easier for citizens to register and vote, as well as a requirement that voters be required to show government-issued photo identification before voting. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 26 pages].

Raising US Climate Ambition in Advance of COP26: An Economic and National Security Imperative

Raising US Climate Ambition in Advance of COP26: An Economic and National Security Imperative. Atlantic Council. Margaret Jackson, Zachary Strauss. March 31, 2021

Rejoining the Paris Agreement was one of President Joe Biden’s top priorities on his first day in office, and his administration is already looking ahead to the next meeting of the Conference of the Parties in Glasgow this November. However, more ambitious domestic climate action is critical to reestablishing the United States as a global climate leader. While the administration has bold targets for carbon-free electricity by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2050, executive action alone is not enough, and both Congressional and private sector support will be necessary to achieve these goals over the coming decades.

The new Global Energy Center issue brief, “Raising US Climate Ambition in Advance of COP26: An Economic and National Security Imperative,” by Margaret Jackson and Zachary Strauss assesses why climate action is important to US economic and national security interests and how the energy transition will open new opportunities for employment and economic growth as the country recovers from the global pandemic. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 22 pages].

10 Facts about Americans and Coronavirus Vaccines

10 Facts about Americans and Coronavirus Vaccines. Pew Research Center.  Cary Funk, John Gramlich. March 23, 2021

President Joe Biden has urged state governments to make every adult in the United States eligible for a coronavirus vaccine by May 1 in the hopes of getting the nation “closer to normal” by the July 4 holiday. The pace of inoculations in the U.S. has accelerated in recent weeks as states have made vaccines available to larger portions of their populations. At the same time, not all Americans plan to get a shot even after they become eligible.

As the U.S. vaccination campaign ramps up, here are key facts about Americans’ views about coronavirus vaccines, based on surveys by Pew Research Center over the course of the pandemic. This analysis will be updated as new survey data becomes available. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[HTML format, various paging].

Rebuild with Purpose: An Affirmative Vision for 21st Century American Infrastructure

Rebuild with Purpose: An Affirmative Vision for 21st Century American Infrastructure. Brookings Institution. Adie Tomer, Joseph W. Kane, and Caroline George. April 13, 2021.

Policymakers, practitioners, and the general public increasingly agree that our infrastructure systems are under pressure. Storm surges and coastal flooding continue to wreak havoc on our cities and towns. A lack of world-leading digital infrastructure has made it harder for businesses and people to compete in the global information economy. Outdated pipes and streets impact the health and safety of too many people.

Simply repairing our outmoded infrastructure systems with the same traditional policies, technologies, and designs is not enough. Americans are ready for a grand reimagining of and reinvestment in our infrastructure to revitalize the transportation, water, energy, and broadband systems that power our economy.

Brookings new report, Rebuild with purpose: An affirmative vision for 21st century American infrastructure, serves as the foundation for a new federal vision for American infrastructure. The report crafts an integrated plan to address four cross-cutting forces of change, and recommends a three-part framework to guide Congress and federal agencies’ strategic direction. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 110 pages].

Large Majority of the Public Views Prosecution of Capitol Rioters as ‘Very Important’

Large Majority of the Public Views Prosecution of Capitol Rioters as ‘Very Important’. Pew Research Center. March 18, 2021.

Similar shares of Americans view violent right-wing extremism, left-wing extremism as ‘major problems’ for the country

As the FBI and other federal law enforcement agencies continue to pursue charges against participants in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, the American public generally expresses strong support for continuing these efforts. Yet there are sizable partisan differences in attitudes about the riot at the Capitol, with Democrats far more likely than Republicans to view prosecution of the rioters as very important and to say that penalties for the rioters are likely to be less severe than they should be. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 29 pages].

Federal-Aid Highway Program (FAHP): In Brief

Federal-Aid Highway Program (FAHP): In Brief. Congressional Research Service. Robert S. Kirk. Updated March 1, 2021

The federal government has provided some form of highway funding to the states for more than 100 years. The major characteristics of the federal highway program have been constant since the early 1920s. First, most funds are apportioned to the states by formula and implementation is left primarily to state departments of transportation (state DOTs). Second, the states are required to provide matching funds. Until the 1950s, each federal dollar had to be matched by an identical amount of state and local money. The federal share is now 80% for non-Interstate System road projects and 90% for Interstate System projects. Third, generally, federal money can be spent only on designated federal-aid highways, which make up roughly a quarter of U.S. public roads.

[PDF format, 16 pages].