Countering Foreign Interference in U.S. Elections

Countering Foreign Interference in U.S. Elections. RAND Corporation. Marek N. Posard, Hilary Reininger, Todd C. Helmus. March 29, 2021.

This report is the fourth in a four-part series aimed at helping policymakers and the public understand—and mitigate—the threat of online foreign interference in national, state, and local elections. During future U.S. political campaigns, Russia might try again to manipulate and divide U.S. voters via social media. Given the past and likely extant threats to U.S. elections, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services asked for research to help analyze, forecast, and mitigate threats by foreign actors targeting local, state, and national elections.

This report first describes research from focus groups and individual interviews on how people respond to memes sourced in Russia that were designed to breed dissension and to a public service announcement (PSA) warning about such online manipulation, then outlines a strategy to counter foreign interference in U.S. elections. The authors posit that adversaries are trying to exploit fault lines that already exist within U.S. society. These efforts could be effectively countered by collecting open-source intelligence on social media; releasing a simple, well-designed PSA for use during election cycles that warns the public about strategic threats targeting U.S. elections; and coordinating with social media companies to flag the source of foreign political content. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 68 pages].

Raising US Climate Ambition in Advance of COP26: An Economic and National Security Imperative

Raising US Climate Ambition in Advance of COP26: An Economic and National Security Imperative. Atlantic Council. Margaret Jackson, Zachary Strauss. March 31, 2021

Rejoining the Paris Agreement was one of President Joe Biden’s top priorities on his first day in office, and his administration is already looking ahead to the next meeting of the Conference of the Parties in Glasgow this November. However, more ambitious domestic climate action is critical to reestablishing the United States as a global climate leader. While the administration has bold targets for carbon-free electricity by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2050, executive action alone is not enough, and both Congressional and private sector support will be necessary to achieve these goals over the coming decades.

The new Global Energy Center issue brief, “Raising US Climate Ambition in Advance of COP26: An Economic and National Security Imperative,” by Margaret Jackson and Zachary Strauss assesses why climate action is important to US economic and national security interests and how the energy transition will open new opportunities for employment and economic growth as the country recovers from the global pandemic. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 22 pages].

What’s Ahead for a Cooperative Regulatory Agenda on Artificial Intelligence?

What’s Ahead for a Cooperative Regulatory Agenda on Artificial Intelligence? Center for Strategic & International Studies. Meredith Broadbent. March 17, 2021

In her first major speech to a U.S. audience after the U.S. presidential election, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen laid out priority areas for transatlantic cooperation. She proposed building a new relationship between Europe and the United States, one that would encompass transatlantic coordination on digital technology issues, including working together on global standards for regulating artificial intelligence (AI) aligned with EU values. A reference to cooperation on standards for AI was included in the New Transatlantic Agenda for Global Change issued by the Commission on December 2, 2020. In remarks to Parliament on January 22, 2021, President von der Leyen called for “creating a digital economy rule book” with the United States that is “valid worldwide.” Some would say Europe’s new outreach on issues of tech governance and the suggestion of establishing an “EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council” is incongruous to the current regulatory war being waged against United States firms in the name of unilateral European tech sovereignty. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 19 pages].

Advancing Multilateralism in a Populist Age

Advancing Multilateralism in a Populist Age. Brookings Institution. Thomas Wright. February 2021

This paper looks at how multilateralists in the United States and Europe are thinking about strengthening a cooperative international order at a time when populism and nationalism are strong forces in many of the major powers. The paper distinguishes between three pathways that multilateralism might take, particularly in Europe: the hitherto dominant incrementalist approach which involves trying to gradually integrate China and other non-Western powers into the order; an “alone in the jungle” approach whereby Europe would operate as a third pole between the United States and China; and a “reinvigorating the free world” approach, with Europe working with the United States to strengthen free and open democracies against authoritarian challenges. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 12 pages].          

The Drivers of Institutional Trust and Distrust: Exploring Components of Trustworthiness

The Drivers of Institutional Trust and Distrust: Exploring Components of Trustworthiness. RAND Corporation. Jennifer Kavanagh et al. November 17, 2020.

Trust in many institutions, such as government and media, has declined in the past two decades. Although such trends are well documented, they are not well understood. The study described in this report presents a new framework for assessing institutional trust and understanding the individual characteristics and institutional attributes that affect trust. Analysis is based on a survey of 1,008 respondents conducted through the RAND Corporation’s American Life Panel in April 2018. The study makes several key contributions to the field of institutional trust research. First, researchers used a scale that distinguishes between trust and distrust, thus allowing a different understanding of trust. Second, the analysis is a first step toward understanding why people trust institutions. The framework allows exploration of components of trustworthiness—i.e., the institutional attributes that people say they consider important to levels of trust (e.g., integrity, competence). The researchers also analyzed relationships between components of trustworthiness and the individual characteristics of those expressing the level of trust. Third, the survey featured questions about multiple institutions, allowing researchers to make comparisons across institutions. The research provides insights into individual characteristics and institutional attributes associated with institutional trust. This study is a “first cut” at a complicated concept and at exploring what is needed to rebuild institutional trust. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 240 pages].

Stronger Together: A Strategy to Revitalize Transatlantic Power

Stronger Together: A Strategy to Revitalize Transatlantic Power. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. December 2020

A group of experts and former government officials from Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) convened strategists from the United States and Europe over the past year to discuss the crisis in the transatlantic relationship and to propose a strategy to revive and strengthen it. We Europeans and Americans launched this project due to our shared commitment to the transatlantic relationship. We met throughout 2020—first in Munich and Berlin and then virtually during the pandemic—to develop a truly transatlantic fusion of ideas and strategy.  [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 100 pages].

Global Security Forum 2020: A New Era for U.S. Alliances

Global Security Forum 2020: A New Era for U.S. Alliances. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Emma Bates, Samuel Brannen, Alexander Kaplan. December 14, 2020

The U.S.-led system of alliances is more important than ever. Global cooperation with U.S. leadership has long undertaken responsibility for economic stability, nonproliferation, counterterrorism, and prevention of large-scale violent conflict. In 2020, as the country prepares to transition from the Trump presidency to a new Joseph R. Biden, Jr. administration, that list of responsibilities now includes managing a global pandemic while reinvigorating the power of American values in competition with an increasingly coercive China. The United States will need allies, partners, and friends as it wrestles with a changing international order; more capable and numerous rivals; and mounting challenges to human security at home and abroad. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 45 pages].

The Hidden Costs of Cybercrime

The Hidden Costs of Cybercrime. Center for Strategic & International Studies.  James Andrew Lewis, Zhanna Malekos Smith , Eugenia Lostri. December 9, 2020

As the global losses from cybercrime approach $1 trillion, this report focuses on the costs of cybercrime that organizations may be less aware of, such as opportunity costs, downtime and damaged staff morale. After surveying 1,500 decisionmakers in government and businesses, the report also assesses the internal challenges in adequately facing these threats. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 38 pages].

NATO’s Response to COVID-19: Lessons for Resilience and Readiness

NATO’s Response to COVID-19: Lessons for Resilience and Readiness. Brookings Institution.  Giovanna De Maio. October 2020

With the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, for the first time in its history NATO had to face an attack against each of its member states at once. Given the backdrop of political tensions within the alliance in the past few years, there were not many reasons to be optimistic about NATO’s response, especially at a moment when trans-Atlantic allies were failing to coordinate on travel restrictions and competing over supplies of medical equipment. In spite of this, NATO was able to leverage its experience in crisis management and disaster relief to provide two kinds of responses. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 18 pages].

Alliance Power for Cybersecurity

Alliance Power for Cybersecurity. Atlantic Council.  Kenneth Geers. August 4, 2020.

There is only one internet and only one cyberspace connecting individuals, enterprises, and nations all over the world. Ever more frequently, this shared space is coming under attack from malicious actors, both state and non-state, who are seeking to exploit cyberspace’s shared infrastructure for their own ends. Addressing cybersecurity threats is therefore an international problem that requires an international solution. But given the myriad of threats faced in the cyber domain and the ambiguous borders that exist there, how can states best address these challenges and ensure the safety of their own networks and people?

In this new report from the Scowcroft Center’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, Cyber Statecraft Initiative senior fellow Kenneth Geers argues that the best way for democratic states to defend their own cyber networks is to leverage the multinational strength of political and military alliances like NATO and the European Union. Alliances like NATO give democracies an advantage over their authoritarian rivals by providing already established mechanisms for multinational cooperation. Alliances are therefore better equipped to tackle the inherently international challenges of cybersecurity. 

To illustrate the impact of alliances on cybersecurity, Geers uses events in Ukraine as a case study, comparing the Ukrainian government’s efforts to defend against Russian cyberattacks shortly after the 2014 revolution with measures taken in cooperation with partners to defend the 2019 presidential election. Geers illustrates how collective action in 2019 produced improved security outcomes compared to efforts taken by Ukraine alone. Building on these lessons, Geers argues that the only structures likely to produce tangible results in cybersecurity are those within political and military alliances. Indeed, the only credible cyber superpower is a robust alliance. The report then offers a series of recommendations on how NATO and the EU can promote trust and collaboration among Allies and partners to build a more effective cyber alliance. [Note: contains copyrighted material].

[PDF format, 28 pages].